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Re: [JITTER] AL2S Weekly Bandwidth Capacity Report


Chronological Thread 
  • From: Ron Milford <>
  • To: Jon-Paul Herron <>
  • Cc: Dale Finkelson <>, "" <>, "" <>, "" <>
  • Subject: Re: [JITTER] AL2S Weekly Bandwidth Capacity Report
  • Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2016 14:07:34 -0500

I’m not exactly sure who receives this report and what purpose they use it for. If folks can chime in I’d be happy to record the information.

Thanks,
Ron

On Mar 4, 2016, at 2:00 PM, Jon-Paul Herron <> wrote:

thanks, if you can also include “who should get this report (both in terms of generic roles and in terms of mailing lists), along with “how will the report be used?”  we can incorporate that into the documentation we’re trying to create.

On Mar 4, 2016, at 1:58 PM, Ron Milford <> wrote:

I think that would be a great idea. I’l work on writing up the requirements and submitting it for approval and prioritization to create the reports. If anyone has any more input, let me know.

Cheers,
Ron

On Mar 4, 2016, at 1:49 PM, Dale Finkelson <> wrote:

Hi,
 Would there be any value, or is it possible, to generate a parallel report for a few weeks using the parameters that Ron is suggesting and see how it differs from the current one?

Dale

Dale Finkelson
Internet2

office: +1-734-352-4958 | mobile: +1-402-304-0548




On Mar 4, 2016, at 1:32 PM, Ron Milford <> wrote:

I still like using the 95th percentile number. I wasn’t suggesting we eliminate that. Instead, I was suggesting that the weekend traffic levels are lowering the 95th%ile number. If I understand how 95th percentile is calculated, then If two sevenths of our data is well below average, then it will pull the 95th percentile down and we won’t get a true measurement of utilization during the other five sevenths of the time we really care about. I’m not sure how significant the difference would be, but what I’m suggesting is that we calculate the 95th percentile based on the work/school week and discard the weekend data in our calculations. It’s entirely possible my understanding of how the 95th percentile is calculated is wrong, so let me know if I’m on the wrong track with this.

I’m not against reporting the 98%ile or 99%ile numbers in addition if you think it would be useful. I agree 95th%ile eliminates the short duration spikes, which may or may not be a good thing. I’m not really a statistician, so I can’t really argue for or against it with any conviction.

Ron


On Mar 4, 2016, at 12:44 PM, Jeff Bartig <> wrote:

Personally, I find the manual report Ron has been doing to be much more useful.  It is easy to see the trouble areas.  I closely matches a similar spreadsheet I've been using at times to track TR/CPS usage.

Ron:  I don't think I understand your comment about 95%ile and low usage on the weekends.  I think using some type of %ile algorithm is the correct approach, since all it is doing is throwing out the top 5% of measurement intervals and then reporting the highest remaining interval.  The weekends would in some cases be the lowest intervals and would never factor into the measurement.  For 95%ile, I think the more important question is if it is throwing away important high usage intervals.  %5 of a day is 72 minutes.  5% of a week is 8.4 hours.  5% of a month is 36 hours.  If we are looking at a weekly report, we could have someone doing an hour long data transfer every day and filling the circuit full.  A 95%ile value might toss out these peaks.

Reporting on the maximum measurement interval over a week often isn't useful either.  Sometimes measurement errors happen.  Sometimes it might have been just 1 minute of high traffic for the entire week.  Maybe also reporting 98 or 99%ile in addition to 95%ile would be a solution for this.

Jeff

Ron Milford wrote:
Unfortunately, I think including the 52 week avg throws off the trending numbers if it includes the outlier weeks/months. Did you look at the spreadsheet I included in my first email? It pretty clearly shows where the problem circuits are and for how long they have been a problem. With that type of format on a web-based report, you can easily identify short term trends visually and use the suggested quarterly/biannual/annual report(s) for longer term analysis.

Thanks,
Ron 


On Mar 4, 2016, at 11:16 AM, Jon-Paul Herron <> wrote:

Thanks this is a good thread, and since we’re in the process of creating a report library to describe the purposes, methods, and data model of each report, this will be useful info for us.  

Some other comments inline:
On Mar 4, 2016, at 10:54 AM, Ron Milford <> wrote:

It was pointed out to me that the “Estimated # Weeks until 40% is reached” is used to estimate number of potential augments for budgeting purposes. I think we can improve the value and accuracy of that number and the “Avg Growth per week” numbers by calculating it based on the most standard weeks of utilization. 

One possibility would be to eliminate the summer months, winter holiday weeks and other outlier weeks like the week of SC when calculating the trend. Alternatively or in conjunction a direct comparison of the same timeframes in the previous year or semester will give us a longer term, but more accurate growth curve. 

Since the occurrence of outlier weeks varies from year to year, this would most likely have to be an ad-hoc report done on an annual, biannual or quarterly basis with the ability to specify the outlier weeks to exclude.

If anyone has any other ideas of how to improve the accuracy of the data please let me know. 


I can see how the suggestions would be more accurate, but is that additional accuracy going to make a difference in the decision-making for when and how urgently to augment?  Looking at the current report, I can see, for instance that 55944 is at the top of the list, and yet it’s 55918 that’s really been busy for a very long time.  It would seem to me that the combination of 52 week average and this trend would help with this.

I might also suggest moving to a web-based report with emailed link.

Thanks,
Ron

On Mar 4, 2016, at 10:09 AM, Ron Milford <> wrote:

I’m not sure who else uses the AL2S Weekly Bandwidth Capacity Report, but I would like to propose a few changes.

I find that some of the data is very unreliable or not useful due primarily to the major drops in traffic during summer months and school holidays. I don’t know who uses that data if anyone, but due to the amount of data the report has to sift through it is taking several hours to run. I would suggest we eliminate the following portions of the report since they are misleading at best.

“Estimated # Weeks until 40% is reached”
“Avg Growth per week (Mbps)”

These may have some use to someone, but I’m not sure it makes sense in the context of this report and I expect eliminating them from this report would speed things up.  
"Inbound % Last 52 week(s)”
"Outbound % Last 52 week(s)"

I also would like to see the output in a slightly different format if possible. Every week, I update the attached spreadsheet which is much more informative. It would be great to get an html report in this type of format showing the actual numbers over time. That way it is easier to compare to in school vs out of school and see trends relatively quickly and easily. 

Additionally we might want to consider revising the reporting period to Monday 0:00 - Friday 24:00 (timezone TBD). I fear we are under-reporting our true bandwidth demand by factoring in the lower utilization weekends in our 95% calculations (unless someone has already taken this into account).

Thanks,
Ron

 
<2016 AL2S Backbone Analysis.xlsx>
On Mar 4, 2016, at 9:26 AM, wrote:



AL2S Weekly Bandwidth Capacity Report for Fri Mar 4 12:30:02 UTC 2016 

This report is averaging and trending traffic based on the past 52 weeks worth of available data for each circuit. In/out bound utilization based on last 1 week(s) of data.
AL2S 95th Percentile Circuit Utilization and Trending. A value of N/A means that a positive slope was not able to be calculated, either because the overall trend was downwards or if there was no data.

A circuit's name in red means that it is exceeding 30% traffic in either direction for the last 1 week(s).
An estimate in red means that the prediction is within 3 months of exceeding the threshold.

Circuit Inbound % Last 1 week(s) Outbound % Last 1 week(s) Estimated # Weeks until 40% is reached Avg Growth per week (Mbps) Inbound % Last 52 week(s) Outbound % Last 52 week(s)
I2-EQCH-EQCH-100GE-55944 In 55.8% Out 17.0% 3 3457.71 In 29.4% Out 11.3%
I2-CHIC-EQCH-100GE-55918 In 52.0% Out 15.9% -33 468.36 In 55.5% Out 20.0%
I2-EQCH-EQCH-100GE-55803 In 47.9% Out 9.9% -3 440.59 In 41.6% Out 11.0%
I2-EQCH-STAR-100GE-09299 In 25.9% Out 43.6% 8 712.16 In 28.5% Out 33.9%
I2-CHIC-CHIC-100GE-07769 In 40.8% Out 43.6% 11 433.77 In 34.7% Out 34.9%
I2-CHIC-KANS-100GE-07745 In 40.8% Out 40.2% 20 268.07 In 25.7% Out 34.6%
I2-CHIC-CHIC-100GE-09166 In 40.6% Out 39.0% 11 194.85 In 37.7% Out 36.1%
I2-CHIC-INDI-100GE-50993 In 15.7% Out 40.6% 20 458.94 In 15.8% Out 30.5%
I2-ASHB-WASH-100GE-11823 In 11.1% Out 39.5% -9 38.37 In 26.6% Out 40.4%
I2-CINC-INDI-100GE-51692 In 39.4% Out 14.9% 23 436.82 In 29.8% Out 15.2%
I2-ASHB-PITT-100GE-07737 In 20.1% Out 36.9% 13 384.62 In 15.7% Out 34.8%
I2-ASHB-WASH-100GE-09106 In 20.9% Out 34.6% N/A -46.45 In 26.0% Out 35.9%
I2-CLEV-EQCH-100GE-07736 In 34.5% Out 25.3% 44 369.20 In 23.4% Out 22.6%
I2-ASHB-ASHB-100GE-12116 In 34.3% Out 18.3% -17 177.23 In 43.0% Out 16.8%
I2-ASHB-ASHB-100GE-55818 In 33.2% Out 9.4% 2 2609.58 In 33.5% Out 9.4%
I2-ATLA-WASH-100GE-54536 In 32.6% Out 17.5% 73 119.07 In 31.2% Out 18.0%
I2-LOSA-PHOE-100GE-09190 In 18.2% Out 31.8% 216 56.08 In 16.4% Out 27.8%
I2-CINC-LOUI-100GE-54197 In 13.1% Out 30.6% 80 199.71 In 14.1% Out 23.9%
I2-CLEV-PITT-100GE-10334 In 30.6% Out 18.9% 31 299.72 In 30.6% Out 16.2%
I2-CHIC-STAR-100GE-07743 In 29.8% Out 27.6% -40 116.69 In 33.7% Out 44.8%
I2-HART2-NEWY32AOA-100GE-12947 In 29.3% Out 12.4% 73 173.40 In 27.2% Out 11.6%
I2-ASHB-ASHB-100GE-55223 In 29.1% Out 14.1% -22 197.34 In 44.4% Out 17.2%
I2-PHOE-TUCS-100GE-11990 In 22.0% Out 27.6% 573 27.39 In 18.8% Out 24.3%
I2-ATLA-JACK-100GE-07739 In 21.0% Out 27.6% 62 292.99 In 20.4% Out 21.7%
I2-ATLA-ATLA-100GE-09159 In 25.1% Out 27.4% N/A -9.09 In 23.7% Out 28.5%
I2-DALL-TULS-100GE-11300 In 14.1% Out 27.3% 59 333.38 In 12.9% Out 20.3%
I2-WASH-WASH-100GE-07774 In 24.2% Out 27.2% N/A -52.34 In 28.9% Out 25.4%
I2-ALBA-CLEV-100GE-07735 In 26.6% Out 16.7% 110 174.48 In 20.8% Out 17.5%
I2-WASH-WASH-100GE-48338 In 26.4% Out 22.7% N/A -76.10 In 26.5% Out 24.6%
I2-KANS-TULS-100GE-07753 In 21.1% Out 25.0% 104 178.22 In 16.3% Out 21.4%
I2-RALE-WASH-100GE-08888 In 24.7% Out 7.5% N/A -386.10 In 31.6% Out 18.4%
I2-HOUH-HOUS-100GE-09174 In 23.5% Out 24.3% 326 56.45 In 20.4% Out 21.5%
I2-ELPA-TUCS-100GE-07750 In 23.8% Out 20.6% 273 69.21 In 21.1% Out 18.2%
I2-ATLA-LOUI-100GE-07740 In 23.6% Out 14.1% 96 186.29 In 22.0% Out 14.4%
I2-PHIL-WASH-100GE-10867 In 22.9% Out 11.8% 1190 13.96 In 23.4% Out 14.1%
I2-SEAT-SEAT-100GE-09171 In 22.0% Out 13.1% 135 202.28 In 12.6% Out 10.4%
I2-KANS-KANS-100GE-09168 In 21.9% Out 20.9% 206 96.83 In 20.0% Out 18.1%
I2-KANS-KANS-100GE-09167 In 21.1% Out 20.7% 194 109.15 In 18.8% Out 18.4%
I2-ALBA-BOST-100GE-09210 In 15.5% Out 21.0% 311 71.90 In 17.6% Out 17.4%
I2-ATLA-ATLA-100GE-09160 In 20.9% Out 20.1% 671 26.81 In 21.0% Out 22.0%
I2-LOSA-LOSA-100GE-07772 In 18.0% Out 20.4% 173 128.73 In 14.0% Out 17.7%
I2-LOSA-LOSA-100GE-09173 In 20.3% Out 15.9% 445 49.68 In 17.9% Out 13.9%
I2-ELPA-HOUH-100GE-07749 In 19.7% Out 20.2% 558 37.05 In 17.9% Out 19.3%
I2-LOSA-WILC-100GE-26909 In 20.2% Out 2.9% 108 220.50 In 16.2% Out 3.1%
I2-SALT-SALT-100GE-09169 In 17.9% Out 18.8% N/A -0.29 In 16.2% Out 17.7%
I2-EQCH-MINN-100GE-12184 In 9.3% Out 18.0% 92 321.04 In 4.7% Out 10.4%
I2-BATO-HOUH-100GE-08860 In 17.2% Out 14.9% 94 263.93 In 15.2% Out 13.5%
I2-CLEV-CLEV-100GE-09164 In 13.1% Out 16.7% 100 268.99 In 9.5% Out 12.8%
I2-DALL-HOUH-100GE-07751 In 13.6% Out 16.7% 150 178.01 In 12.5% Out 13.2%
I2-HOUH-HOUS-100GE-09379 In 16.5% Out 14.1% 870 28.49 In 15.2% Out 12.9%
I2-ATLA-CHAR-100GE-07738 In 9.1% Out 16.0% N/A -370.73 In 25.4% Out 24.8%
I2-LASV-LOSA-100GE-53802 In 15.4% Out 4.5% 55 423.74 In 16.5% Out 6.7%
I2-NEWY32AOA-NEWY32AOA-100GE-09163 In 12.1% Out 15.3% 236 114.12 In 13.0% Out 12.5%
I2-NEWY32AOA-PHIL-100GE-07759 In 11.3% Out 15.2% 4973 4.97 In 15.3% Out 15.3%
I2-NEWY32AOA-NEWY32AOA-100GE-09162 In 14.4% Out 11.5% 500 54.53 In 12.7% Out 11.3%
I2-ASHB-CHIC-100GE-11803 In 14.3% Out 13.4% 561 34.46 In 19.1% Out 20.7%
I2-DENV-KANS-100GE-07746 In 14.0% Out 13.1% 1951 14.05 In 12.6% Out 12.4%
I2-SALT-SEAT-100GE-08998 In 13.9% Out 8.8% 531 54.88 In 10.9% Out 8.3%
I2-LASV-SALT-100GE-07757 In 4.2% Out 13.8% 65 381.95 In 6.6% Out 15.0%
I2-SEAT-SEAT-100GE-09172 In 13.7% Out 12.7% 209 145.89 In 9.5% Out 7.7%
I2-BATO-JACK-100GE-11005 In 13.3% Out 13.7% 107 254.14 In 12.1% Out 12.6%
I2-CLEV-CLEV-100GE-09165 In 13.3% Out 9.4% 140 189.07 In 13.4% Out 10.6%
I2-ASHB-WASH-100GE-55815 In 12.1% Out 11.4% 30 922.37 In 11.5% Out 11.6%
I2-DENV-SALT-100GE-07747 In 11.4% Out 12.0% 497 53.66 In 13.3% Out 12.1%
I2-BOST-HART2-100GE-09211 In 10.2% Out 10.5% 2459 11.21 In 12.4% Out 10.8%
I2-PORT-SEAT-100GE-08997 In 8.5% Out 6.1% 363 96.73 In 4.9% Out 3.8%
I2-LOSA-SUNN-100GE-07755 In 7.1% Out 8.1% 345 101.64 In 4.9% Out 4.6%
I2-PORT-SUNN-100GE-10343 In 6.4% Out 7.2% 435 82.12 In 3.6% Out 4.3%
I2-CHAR-RALE-100GE-10633 In 5.5% Out 3.3% N/A -437.41 In 25.2% Out 17.9%
I2-ATLA-JCSN-100GE-10784 In 4.1% Out 1.6% N/A -267.43 In 14.7% Out 11.3%
I2-HOUH-JCSN-100GE-10783 In 1.6% Out 4.1% N/A -267.76 In 11.2% Out 14.7%
I2-MISS2-SEAT-100GE-13237 In 3.6% Out 1.3% 792 46.43 In 3.2% Out 1.3%
I2-RENO-SUNN-100GE-07766 In 3.5% Out 1.0% 1103 34.13 In 2.3% Out 0.9%
I2-SALT-SALT-100GE-09170 In 3.3% Out 2.7% 2810 12.91 In 3.7% Out 2.3%
I2-MINN-MISS2-100GE-09130 In 2.8% Out 1.5% 882 42.52 In 2.5% Out 1.4%
I2-RENO-SALT-100GE-53725 In 1.0% Out 2.0% 3176 12.02 In 1.3% Out 1.8%
I2-KANS-MINN-100GE-12675 In 1.2% Out 1.8% 3735 10.26 In 1.3% Out 1.7%
I2-DENV-ELPA-100GE-07748 In 1.4% Out 1.0% 658 51.75 In 3.7% Out 5.9%
I2-CHIC-COLU4-100GE-11554 In 1.2% Out 1.2% N/A -29.77 In 2.1% Out 6.4%
I2-COLU4-KANS-100GE-11548 In 0.6% Out 0.8% N/A -37.17 In 2.2% Out 6.4%





--
Jeff Bartig
Interconnection Architect
Internet2  AS11164 / AS11537
+1-608-616-9908








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